Germany’s conservative opposition, led by Friedrich Merz, won Sunday’s national election, while the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) nearly doubled its support.
Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democrats (SPD) suffered a historic defeat, recording their worst postwar result.
The election, held seven months early due to the collapse of Scholz’s coalition government, reflected widespread voter dissatisfaction and growing concerns over economic stagnation and migration.
Projections placed Merz’s CDU/CSU alliance at approximately 28.5% of the vote, while AfD surged to 20.5%, significantly exceeding its previous high of 12.6% in 2017. Scholz’s SPD plummeted to just over 16%, a steep decline from its 25.7% result in 2021.
The Greens, a key partner in the outgoing government, secured around 12%, while the pro-business Free Democrats (FDP) stood at 4.5%, likely falling below the 5% threshold required for parliamentary representation.
Meanwhile, the far-left Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) hovered near 5%, making its final status crucial in determining the Bundestag’s composition.
Scholz conceded defeat, calling the outcome “a bitter election result.”
Merz’s Path to Power and Coalition Challenges
Addressing supporters, Merz stressed the urgency of forming a government swiftly. “The world isn’t waiting for us,” he declared, emphasizing the need for political stability amid global uncertainties, including shifts in U.S. foreign policy under President Donald Trump and NATO’s role in European security.
His goal is to form a coalition government by Easter.
The election was dominated by economic concerns and immigration policy—two key issues that fueled AfD’s surge. The party capitalized on voter frustration, particularly following high-profile crimes allegedly committed by asylum seekers.
AfD co-leader Tino Chrupalla hailed the result as “historic,” while chancellor candidate Alice Weidel declared that AfD was now “at the center of German politics.” “We are no longer on the fringes,” Chrupalla told supporters.
AfD’s strong showing has reignited debates about its potential role in government. Weidel signaled openness to coalition talks with the CDU/CSU, arguing that “no real policy change is possible in Germany without us.”
However, Merz swiftly rejected the idea, insisting that their parties were fundamentally incompatible. “We have vastly different views on foreign policy, security, Europe, the euro, and NATO,” he said. “You want the opposite of what we stand for. There will be no cooperation.”
Uncertain Coalition Prospects
With no party securing an outright majority, Merz is expected to seek a coalition with either the SPD or the Greens.
Weidel warned that any government excluding AfD would be unstable. “If Merz ends up forming an alliance with the Social Democrats and Greens, it won’t last four years,” she predicted.
“He will be an interim chancellor, and in the coming years, we will overtake the CDU/CSU.”
Geopolitical Pressures and Europe’s Security
The election took place against the backdrop of shifting global alliances. Trump’s recent comments about NATO and his outreach to Russian President Vladimir Putin have raised alarm in Europe, adding pressure on Germany’s next government.
Merz acknowledged these geopolitical challenges, emphasizing the need to strengthen European security and reduce reliance on the U.S.
“After Trump’s recent statements, it is clear that the U.S. is largely indifferent to Europe’s fate,” Merz said. “My top priority will be to strengthen Europe as quickly as possible so that we can achieve greater independence in defense matters.”
AfD’s rise was further amplified by endorsements from Trump-aligned figures, including billionaire Elon Musk, who praised the party as the only one capable of “saving Germany.”
