Filipino households are facing another inflation warning as the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas projects May 2026 inflation at 7.1% to 7.9%, keeping price growth near one of its highest levels since 2023.
The Philippine Statistics Authority is scheduled to release the official May figure this Friday, June 5. If inflation reaches the BSP’s upper estimate of 7.9%, it would be the fastest print since February 2023, when inflation stood at 8.6%. Even the lower end would stay close to April’s 7.2%, the fastest pace since March 2023.
“Upside price pressures were driven by rising prices for rice, vegetables, and meat, as well as the depreciation of the peso,” the BSP said in its month-ahead forecast. The central bank said the pressure was partly offset by lower fuel prices, cheaper fish, and slightly reduced electricity rates.
April data already showed the strain on household budgets. PSA reported that headline inflation rose from 4.1% in March to 7.2% in April. Food inflation reached 6.1%, while the rice index increased 13.7% year-on-year, making the staple one of the major drivers of food inflation.
The figures were sharper for the poorest households. PSA data for the bottom 30% income households showed overall inflation at 8.5% in April. Food inflation for the same group also reached 8.5%, with the rice index rising 15.3%.
The latest PSA retail data showed regular milled rice averaged ₱50.91 per kilo during the second phase of May, still higher than ₱43.32 in the same period last year. A family buying five kilos a week would spend about ₱38 more weekly on regular milled rice alone.
Private-sector estimates also show inflation pressure staying high, with some forecasts tracking May inflation at around 8%. Analysts pointed to food prices, transport costs tied to earlier global oil-price increases, seasonal supply constraints, and peso depreciation as pressure points.
The May inflation print will help guide the BSP’s June 18 policy meeting, where another rate hike could be considered.
