Naga City Mayor Leni Robredo and Davao City Mayor Sebastian “Baste” Duterte would be in a statistical tie if the 2028 presidential election were held today, according to separate recent nationwide surveys by Momentum Research and Tangere.
The October 2026 National Momentum Survey put Robredo at 45.7% and Duterte at 43.2%, a slim 2.5-percentage-point difference that falls within the poll’s ±2.6-percentage-point margin of error, making the two statistically tied. Momentum conducted face-to-face interviews with 1,401 Filipino adults nationwide from Oct. 16 to 19.
The survey showed marked regional differences in voter preferences. Robredo led with 62.4% support in Metro Manila, 55.7% in the rest of Luzon and 51.6% in the Visayas, while Duterte dominated Mindanao with 79.8%.
Among independent voters, Robredo garnered 51.6% support compared with Duterte’s 34.8%. The Davao City mayor also received 80.4% backing from respondents who identified themselves as Duterte supporters.
A separate nationwide poll by market research firm Tangere likewise showed Robredo and Duterte among the leading choices for president in 2028.
In a presidential lineup featuring several potential contenders, Robredo topped the list with 29%, followed by Duterte at 22%. Sen. Bong Go received 18%, while Sen. Raffy Tulfo posted 14%.
Tangere also tested a scenario that excluded Robredo and Tulfo, with Duterte leading that lineup at 29%, followed by Go at 26% and Sen. Bam Aquino at 20%.
The Tangere survey covered 1,800 respondents nationwide from Sept. 30 to Oct. 3 and had a margin of error of ±2.4 percentage points.
Both surveys showed Robredo and Duterte among the leading presidential choices ahead of 2028, with Momentum finding the two in a statistical dead heat and Tangere likewise showing a close race between them if Filipinos were to elect their next president today.
Duterte’s standing has risen as his sister, Vice President Sara Duterte, faces an impeachment trial. Sara leads several presidential preference surveys, but if she is convicted and removed through impeachment, she would be barred from running for president despite her earlier declaration of plans to seek the presidency.
