A powerful El Niño now developing in the Pacific could push heat-related deaths sharply higher worldwide, with Southeast Asia among the regions facing the greatest danger in the months ahead.
The University of Chicago’s Climate Impact Lab projects about 451,000 additional heat-related deaths globally from June 2026 through February 2027 compared with the 1996-2025 average.
The Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand and Cambodia could record a combined 19,400 additional deaths from September through February. Indonesia is projected at another 19,300, while Africa’s Sahel region faces an estimated 66,800.
Researchers expect global land temperatures to reach about 1.2°C above normal, producing 44% more extremely hot days than in an average year. The projections use long-range temperature forecasts and research on heat-related mortality across 24,378 regions worldwide.
The threat is already unfolding as DOST-PAGASA warns that a Strong El Niño active in the tropical Pacific could intensify into a Very Strong El Niño between September and December 2026 and persist through the first half of 2027.
UP Institute of Environmental Science and Meteorology scientist Rafaela Jane Delfino said temperature anomalies in parts of the monitored Pacific have already exceeded 2°C above normal as the event continues developing.
“Papunta pa lang tayo sa peak. Developing pa lang siya. So kaya siya tinatawag na Super El Niño kasi literally, off the charts,” Delfino said.
PAGASA also warns that western parts of the Philippines may still experience above-normal rainfall from the southwest monsoon and tropical cyclones despite generally drier El Niño conditions. The Climate Change Commission said intense cyclones, including super typhoons, may still occur.
Climate Impact Lab researchers said targeted action could still save tens of thousands of lives. Measures cited include heat warnings, cooling centers, hydration stations, health outreach, worker protections and expanded health-system capacity.
